On 18 May, 2026, Analytics and Advisory Group "PowerHouse Latvia" in cooperation with the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, and in partnership with the Embassy of France in Latvia organises a discussion: "France's 2026 Nuclear Doctrine - a New Dawn for European Small States?"

Following President Macron's 2026 Île Longue address, France has upended decades of strategic restraint. With the launch of "Forward Deterrence" and the first stockpile expansion since the Cold War, Paris is signalling a new era for European security. As Washington pivots toward "offloading" regional burdens, this discussion addresses a critical question: Does France's new nuclear posture offer a credible shield for European small states, including the Baltics, or merely more strategic ambiguity?

The discussion will feature Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, and will be moderated by Mārtiņš Vargulis, Managing Partner at Analytics and Advisory Group "PowerHouse Latvia", Lecturer at Riga Stradiņš University.

Bruno Tertrais is Deputy Director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (Foundation for Strategic Research, FRS), the main French think tank on international security issues, and a non-resident fellow at Institut Montaigne. His areas of expertise include geopolitics and international relations, strategic and military affairs, as well as political demography. He was previously a Senior Research Fellow at FRS (2001–2016), a Special Assistant to the Director of Strategic Affairs at the Ministry of Defense (1993–2001), and Director of the Civilian Affairs Committee at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (1990–1993). In 1995–1996, he was a visiting researcher at the RAND Corporation. He was a member of the commissions on the White Paper on Defense and National Security appointed by Presidents Sarkozy (2007) and Hollande (2012), and a scientific adviser to the French government's High Commissioner for Planning (2020–2021). In 2016, he was awarded the Legion of Honour by President Hollande. He is also an officer of the National Order of Merit. He has a monthly column on geopolitics in the weekly Le Point.